Crunching Numbers in Ming Times

What Population Censuses Can Tell about Chinese Migration towards the South

Abstract

Scholars have increasingly studied the integration of China’s southern and southwestern regions into the Ming and Qing empires, focusing on the incorporation of non-Chinese peoples within these distant empires. While Chinese migration to southern regions predated the fourteenth century, scholars argue that the period following has seen significant population growth attributed to increased migration. This paper evaluates historical census data and estimated growth rates to analyze population dynamics in these regions. The author highlights discrepancies in historical census data derived from different methodologies, particularly contrasting the data sets of Mingshilu, Mingshi, and Da-Ming huidian with local comprehensive gazetteers and Huangyu kao. The examination of two case studies, Guizhou and Guangxi, reveals that the data sets exhibit logical trends when kept separate; however, convergence leads to confusion, obscuring the historical narrative. Additionally, the investigation of three test cases — Guangdong, Huguang, and Jiangxi — does not robustly back the data set theory but still contributes valuable perspectives on interpreting population figures. Critical findings advocate for consideration of post-1393 data, which suggest some regions experienced negative growth or minimal increases, contradicting the prevailing assumption of uniform, solid population growth across all southern provinces during the Ming era. Thus, the paper argues for a more nuanced understanding of historical population trends in these areas, emphasizing the necessity of acknowledging decreases identified in historical sources when assessing their demographics during Ming times.

近年來，學者們對明清時期中國南方和西南地區的整合過程表現出了濃厚的興趣。他們特別關注的是，明清政府是如何將非漢族人納入帝國版圖的。自14世紀起，由於漢族人口大量向南方遷移，南方和西南地區的人口出現了顯著增長。本文比較了不同來源的歷史人口普查資料，發現不同資料集的普查方法存在差異。通過案例研究和資料分析，本文認為，不能忽視1393年後的人口資料，因為明代南方和西南地區的人口增長假設過於籠統，歷史資料中的人口減少記錄也不容忽視。