The Construction of Complex Historical Models

Second Order Explorations

Abstract

In this article, an exploration of a „second order variety" is undertaken which concludes with some new insights into the long-running debate on the reversibility or irreversibility of historical processes. The investigation begins with a detailed methodological discussion of the legitimate and irreducible multiplicity of potentially complex historical models which refer to virtually identical processes of socio-economic transformation. In view of the surprising diversity of the potential models analyscd, a new type of investigation is proposed, namely a series of „second order analyses" which are designed to identify the self-referential second order features inherent in complex model building such as the attributes of attributes, the dynamics of dynamics, the models of models and, lastly, the evolution of evolution.